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2018年我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)整體供應(yīng)較為充裕

2019-01-17 08:40:53 來(lái)源:農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部 閱讀量:16281 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀:1月16日,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部召開(kāi)新聞發(fā)布會(huì),市場(chǎng)與信息化司司長(zhǎng)唐珂通報(bào)了2018年重點(diǎn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行情況和2019年市場(chǎng)展望,并就相關(guān)情況回答記者提問(wèn)。

  【中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 熱點(diǎn)關(guān)注
 
  1月16日,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部召開(kāi)新聞發(fā)布會(huì),市場(chǎng)與信息化司司長(zhǎng)唐珂通報(bào)了2018年重點(diǎn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行情況和2019年市場(chǎng)展望,并就相關(guān)情況回答記者提問(wèn)。
 
  據(jù)唐珂介紹,2018年我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)總體較為充裕,市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行保持基本平穩(wěn),價(jià)格水平在2017年下跌后溫和恢復(fù),稻谷、小麥?zhǔn)諆?chǔ)制度改革的效應(yīng)開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn);中美貿(mào)易摩擦、非洲豬瘟疫情等影響有限。據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部監(jiān)測(cè),2018年我國(guó)“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品批發(fā)價(jià)格200指數(shù)”全年均值為104.4(以2015年為100),比上年高4.2個(gè)點(diǎn);其中“菜籃子”產(chǎn)品200指數(shù)均值為104.8,比上年高4.9個(gè)點(diǎn)。
 
  收儲(chǔ)制度改革效應(yīng)顯現(xiàn) 市場(chǎng)影響總體可控
 
  過(guò)去的一年里,小麥低收購(gòu)價(jià)小幅下調(diào)、稻谷低收購(gòu)價(jià)有較大幅度下調(diào),政策調(diào)整效果開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn)。小麥、早秈稻和稻谷播種面積分別下降1.0%、6.8%和1.8%,一定程度上緩解了資源環(huán)境壓力,促進(jìn)了結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,也有利于糧食庫(kù)存消化。主產(chǎn)區(qū)小麥、早秈稻開(kāi)秤價(jià)低于去年,后逐步漲至低收購(gòu)價(jià)水平之上,集中收購(gòu)期市場(chǎng)均價(jià)同比分別降約2%和8%;市場(chǎng)化購(gòu)銷(xiāo)趨于活躍,成為農(nóng)民賣(mài)糧的主渠道。新麥上市后麥價(jià)持續(xù)上漲,不少地區(qū)都在每斤1.3元以上,優(yōu)價(jià)特征進(jìn)一步顯現(xiàn)。
 
  低收購(gòu)價(jià)政策是農(nóng)民種糧的“定心丸”。唐珂介紹,2019年我國(guó)將繼續(xù)完善稻谷和小麥低收購(gòu)價(jià)政策。小麥的低收購(gòu)價(jià)2018年11月份已經(jīng)公布,每斤小幅下調(diào)3分錢(qián),每斤1.12元;稻谷低收購(gòu)將也將于春節(jié)前后公布,預(yù)計(jì)將以穩(wěn)為主。在政策支持下,口糧生產(chǎn)和市場(chǎng)有望繼續(xù)保持基本穩(wěn)定,稻谷、小麥的走勢(shì)可能有所差異,稻谷的庫(kù)存水平依然比較高,供需關(guān)系階段性寬松,市場(chǎng)價(jià)格存在一定的下行壓力。小麥在經(jīng)歷上年的產(chǎn)量、質(zhì)量下降之后,供需趨于基本平衡,預(yù)計(jì)2019年庫(kù)存消化進(jìn)度加快,市場(chǎng)價(jià)格有望弱中趨穩(wěn)。
 
  近年來(lái),隨著低收購(gòu)價(jià)政策的完善,以及各地政府加大糧種植、加工和營(yíng)銷(xiāo)等全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的支持,我國(guó)口糧市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了積極變化,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的上下游矛盾有所緩解,市場(chǎng)化收購(gòu)比例不斷提高,優(yōu)價(jià)的特征日益顯現(xiàn)。
 

        玉米去庫(kù)存超預(yù)期 價(jià)格穩(wěn)中有漲
 
  受下游需求快速增長(zhǎng)和種植面積調(diào)減影響,2018年我國(guó)玉米產(chǎn)需缺口擴(kuò)大,庫(kù)存消化進(jìn)度加快,臨儲(chǔ)拍賣(mài)累計(jì)成交突破1億噸。全年玉米價(jià)格穩(wěn)中有升,新玉米上市后收購(gòu)價(jià)普遍走高,山東、河北部分地區(qū)企業(yè)掛牌價(jià)超過(guò)了每斤1元。但由于庫(kù)存依然處于較高水平,市場(chǎng)各方預(yù)期相對(duì)理性,玉米價(jià)格沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)暴漲,年底隨著玉米上市量增加,市場(chǎng)價(jià)格逐步趨穩(wěn)。12月份國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)區(qū)和銷(xiāo)區(qū)平均批發(fā)價(jià)分別為每噸1880元、2060元,同比上漲11.9%、9.6%。
 
  唐珂介紹,據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部組織相關(guān)專(zhuān)家分析預(yù)測(cè),隨著東北地區(qū)玉米深加工產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)的投產(chǎn),2018/2019年度我國(guó)玉米需求將繼續(xù)增加,產(chǎn)需存在一定的缺口,臨儲(chǔ)玉米將繼續(xù)保持較快的消化節(jié)奏。因此2019年很可能是我國(guó)這一輪玉米去庫(kù)存的尾聲,期末庫(kù)存有望恢復(fù)到正常水平。在供需關(guān)系趨緊、價(jià)格上漲的預(yù)期之下,2019年也可能是近年來(lái)我國(guó)玉米產(chǎn)量由降轉(zhuǎn)增的“轉(zhuǎn)折”之年,預(yù)計(jì)玉米種植面積將在市場(chǎng)機(jī)制的作用下有所恢復(fù),在一定程度上增加玉米市場(chǎng)供給。
 
  綜合來(lái)看,雖然臨儲(chǔ)玉米消化偏快,當(dāng)前玉米庫(kù)存依然較高,市場(chǎng)糧源供給充足,全年玉米價(jià)格缺乏大幅上漲的基礎(chǔ),預(yù)計(jì)將以穩(wěn)中有升的走勢(shì)為主。
 
  有效應(yīng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)變化 大豆、豆油及豆粕供需穩(wěn)定
 
  2018年美國(guó)大豆進(jìn)口關(guān)稅提高、進(jìn)口量大幅減少,政府、企業(yè)等各方積極應(yīng)對(duì)。國(guó)內(nèi)的市場(chǎng)主體大量采購(gòu)巴西等國(guó)大豆,有效緩解了供應(yīng)壓力,并通過(guò)推廣低蛋白飼料配方、拓寬蛋白粕來(lái)源,降低了下游豆粕需求。國(guó)內(nèi)大豆市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行基本平穩(wěn),沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng)。進(jìn)口大豆價(jià)格由1月每斤1.67元升至11月每斤1.77元,漲幅約6%,12月又回落至每斤1.71元。
 
  唐珂認(rèn)為,我國(guó)大豆進(jìn)口依存度比較高,需要從的視角來(lái)看國(guó)內(nèi)大豆市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)。據(jù)了解,新一年度的南美大豆播種進(jìn)展順利、長(zhǎng)勢(shì)總體正常,阿根廷大豆生產(chǎn)恢復(fù),預(yù)計(jì)比上年度增產(chǎn)約1700萬(wàn)噸。與此同時(shí),美國(guó)大豆庫(kù)存大幅增加,大豆供需關(guān)系保持寬松??梢灶A(yù)計(jì),2019年我國(guó)進(jìn)口大豆在總量上是有保障的,市場(chǎng)有穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行的基礎(chǔ)。
 
  唐珂說(shuō),在3月份南美大豆大量上市之前,市場(chǎng)仍存在受南美天氣變化等因素影響而導(dǎo)致大豆價(jià)格大幅波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對(duì)國(guó)產(chǎn)大豆來(lái)說(shuō),隨著國(guó)家對(duì)大豆生產(chǎn)支持力度的加大,2019年播種面積有望繼續(xù)增加,國(guó)產(chǎn)大豆供給能力穩(wěn)步提升,與進(jìn)口大豆價(jià)格的聯(lián)動(dòng)性有可能增強(qiáng)。未來(lái)幾個(gè)月是東北大豆主產(chǎn)區(qū)春耕備種的關(guān)鍵期,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部也將密切跟蹤國(guó)內(nèi)外生產(chǎn)和市場(chǎng)變化,及時(shí)發(fā)布供需和價(jià)格信息,推動(dòng)盡早出臺(tái)有關(guān)支持政策,引導(dǎo)好生產(chǎn)和市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。
 
  豬肉價(jià)格波動(dòng)不大 非洲豬瘟影響有限
 
  2018年,豬肉價(jià)格總體呈現(xiàn)“上半年下跌、下半年季節(jié)性回升、非洲豬瘟發(fā)生后產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)區(qū)有所分化”的特征。據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部監(jiān)測(cè),全年豬肉批發(fā)市場(chǎng)均價(jià)為每公斤18.7元,同比跌12.1%;8月份非洲豬瘟發(fā)生后,受活豬跨省禁運(yùn)措施影響,區(qū)域間供需出現(xiàn)不平衡現(xiàn)象,產(chǎn)區(qū)跌、銷(xiāo)區(qū)漲;隨著各地改“調(diào)豬”為“調(diào)肉”,流通渠道逐漸通暢,產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)區(qū)豬價(jià)分化趨緩。
 
  唐珂介紹,去年8月份非洲豬瘟疫情發(fā)生以來(lái),農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部堅(jiān)決落實(shí)國(guó)務(wù)院的決策部署,嚴(yán)格落實(shí)疫情防控措施,同時(shí)加強(qiáng)生豬市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警。2018年生豬市場(chǎng)受非洲豬瘟的影響有限,豬價(jià)總體波動(dòng)不大。預(yù)計(jì)在春節(jié)前夕,生豬價(jià)格將保持穩(wěn)中略降,市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)充足。
 
  根據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部監(jiān)測(cè),1月份第2周全國(guó)集貿(mào)市場(chǎng)活豬平均價(jià)格每公斤13.65元,比前一周下降1.6%,連續(xù)4周下跌,同比下降11.2%;豬肉價(jià)格每公斤23.55元,比前一周下降0.9%,同比下降7.7%。2018年12月份,全國(guó)肥豬平均出欄體重124.27公斤,處于歷史較高水平,表明主產(chǎn)區(qū)仍存在壓欄的現(xiàn)象;生豬出欄比上月增長(zhǎng)9.5%,養(yǎng)豬場(chǎng)戶集中出欄較多;定點(diǎn)監(jiān)測(cè)集貿(mào)市場(chǎng)豬肉交易量同比下降14.4%,消費(fèi)需求偏弱。總的看,市場(chǎng)供需相對(duì)寬松,春節(jié)前價(jià)格保持總體穩(wěn)定,不會(huì)出現(xiàn)大的波動(dòng)。因?yàn)榉侵挢i瘟疫情防控需要,部分地區(qū)仍然需要嚴(yán)格控制生豬及其產(chǎn)品的流動(dòng),不排除部分銷(xiāo)區(qū)價(jià)格有所上漲的可能性。
 
  唐珂認(rèn)為,2019年下半年豬價(jià)值得看好,建議養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)戶適時(shí)補(bǔ)欄。據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部監(jiān)測(cè),2018年12月份全國(guó)生豬存欄同比下降4.8%;能繁母豬存欄同比下降8.3%,連續(xù)3個(gè)月跌幅超過(guò)5%的預(yù)警線,這意味著今年下半年生豬上市量偏少,豬價(jià)上漲的可能性較大。1月份第2周全國(guó)仔豬平均價(jià)格每公斤22.22元,同比下跌27.4%,處于價(jià)格波動(dòng)周期的底部。對(duì)廣大養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)戶來(lái)說(shuō),在做好非洲豬瘟等疫情防控的基礎(chǔ)上,可適時(shí)調(diào)整養(yǎng)殖結(jié)構(gòu)、增加補(bǔ)欄。農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部也將督促各地進(jìn)一步落實(shí)保障生產(chǎn)供給、暢通種豬和仔豬調(diào)運(yùn)的相關(guān)政策,盡量保證肥豬正常出欄,補(bǔ)得了、賣(mài)得出,解決廣大養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)戶增養(yǎng)補(bǔ)欄的后顧之憂。
 
  菜價(jià)波動(dòng)符合季節(jié)性規(guī)律
 
  2018年蔬菜價(jià)格波動(dòng)較大,春秋兩季都出現(xiàn)了部分區(qū)域和品種價(jià)格大跌以及滯銷(xiāo)的現(xiàn)象,但總體看仍符合季節(jié)性波動(dòng)規(guī)律。
 
  2018年春節(jié)后菜價(jià)出現(xiàn)快速下跌,根據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部3月份的監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),28種蔬菜全國(guó)平均批發(fā)價(jià)每公斤4.12元,環(huán)比跌15.7%,是5年來(lái)同期跌幅大的月份,也是近5年跌幅大的一個(gè)月。入夏以來(lái),全國(guó)多地持續(xù)高溫多雨,對(duì)蔬菜生長(zhǎng)、采摘、運(yùn)輸帶來(lái)較大的影響,5月份蔬菜批發(fā)均價(jià)每公斤3.54元,處于10年來(lái)同期較高的價(jià)位。8月份山東濰坊等蔬菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)遭受了臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害、水災(zāi),導(dǎo)致三季度菜價(jià)在高位上漲,秋后又大幅下跌;11月份蔬菜批發(fā)均價(jià)每公斤3.52元,環(huán)比跌13.5%,比近10年均價(jià)低6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上;12月份每公斤3.72元,環(huán)比漲4.8%,同期漲3.3%,開(kāi)始季節(jié)性回升。
 
  唐珂表示,天氣導(dǎo)致蔬菜茬口疊加、集中上市是上年菜價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)的主要原因,同時(shí)也暴露了生產(chǎn)和市場(chǎng)對(duì)接效率偏低的痼疾。因而,有效對(duì)接產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)兩端、破解“菜貴傷民、菜賤傷農(nóng)”問(wèn)題,是一項(xiàng)艱巨的長(zhǎng)期任務(wù)。目前,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部正在與有關(guān)部門(mén)一起,圍繞小農(nóng)戶進(jìn)入大市場(chǎng)的需要,從產(chǎn)地市場(chǎng)建設(shè)、產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)信息服務(wù)、對(duì)接平臺(tái)搭建、產(chǎn)品品牌提升等多方面入手,建立健全從田頭到餐桌的供給體系。
 
(農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部網(wǎng)站 韋科攝)
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