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2022年1-5月份拖拉機市場的分析
2022-07-13
10:16:43
來源:中國農業(yè)機械工業(yè)協會 閱讀量:19565
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導讀:今年1-5月拖拉機產量下降,銷售略有增長,產品馬力段出現變化,企業(yè)消化庫存、經營情況兩極分化。
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農機網 市場行情】今年以來,受國家對三農工作的高度重視、補貼政策的調整、非道路國三國四切換、新冠疫情頻發(fā)等多種因素的影響,今年上半年的
拖拉機市場出現了較大的波動。根據國家統計局和中國農機工業(yè)協會企業(yè)管理委員會提供的拖拉機行業(yè)報表的數據分析,今年1-5月拖拉機產量下降,銷售略有增長,產品馬力段出現變化,企業(yè)消化庫存、經營情況兩極分化。
一、產量下降,產銷率高企,市場以消化庫存為主
拖拉機產量下降。國家統計局6月18日公布了1-5月的拖拉機產量數據,5月份當月生產大型拖拉機7429臺,同比下降0.8%,1-5月累計生產大拖44345臺,同比下降4.2%;5月份當月生產中型拖拉機22332臺,同比下降8.4%,累計生產中拖142584臺同比下降11%。從上述數據可以看出,5月份大拖、中拖的產量都出現了下降,但與屬農機行業(yè)銷售旺季的3月份、4月份的降幅均在兩成以上相比,5月份生產的降幅明顯縮小。國家統計局的資料顯示,1-2月份大拖產量增長19%、中拖產量增長3.5%,3月當月大拖生產下降23.5%、4月當月下降12.1%;3月中拖下降23%、4月份下降23.7%,3、4月份大拖、中拖的產量均出現了較大幅度的下降。這說明3月、4月份受疫情的影響產量下降較大,這也導致了今年1-5月份的拖拉機產量出現下降。
大中拖產量下降原因分析:今年1-5月拖拉機產量下降,尤其是3、4月兩個產量下降大,由于這兩個月是農機銷售最旺的季節(jié),受新冠肺炎疫情多點反復散發(fā)和局部地區(qū)聚集性疫情的影響,農機行業(yè)的生產、發(fā)貨和銷售、服務都先后受到較大的影響。今年先是東北、西北等地市場銷售受疫情影響,接著是山東、江蘇等農機主產地受疫情影響、之后
發(fā)動機、輪胎等供應受疫情影響,尤其是3、4月的旺季生產受疫情影響最大。二是受今年國三切換國四的影響,企業(yè)以消化庫存為主。三是受化肥、農藥、柴油等農業(yè)生產資料價格上升的影響,農民要優(yōu)先購買化肥、種子等生產資料,加上水稻等收購價格不高,今年水田區(qū)域的拖拉機銷售受影響較大。
大中拖產銷率高企。根據中國農機工業(yè)協會企業(yè)管理委員會提供的拖拉機產銷數據,今年1-5月生產大中拖147263臺,同比下降幅度為12.6%;其中大拖生產44914臺,同比增長6.6%,生產中拖102340臺,同比下降18.9%。雖然產量下降,但大中拖的銷售開票增長,1-5月大中拖銷量181192臺,同比增長6.9%,其中大拖銷售51997臺,同比增長30.6%,中拖銷售129169臺,同比僅下降0.4%,由此可見今年1-5月拖拉機銷售的增長主要依賴于大拖銷售的大幅增長。1-5月拖拉機行業(yè)的產銷率高達123%,高出去年同期22個百分點,說明今年拖拉機企業(yè)都在消化庫存。從行業(yè)報表來看,1-5月份
收獲機械、插秧機等產品的產銷率也高于去年同期,說明今年整個農機行業(yè)的企業(yè)都在消化庫存。產銷率指標高,一是受今年多地疫情的影響,部分區(qū)域的供應鏈受到了影響,導致3月、4月銷售旺季的產出減少;二是由于2022年12月1日起實施國四排放,由于當前拖拉機企業(yè)的社會庫存較多,因此部分企業(yè)以消化社會庫存為主;三是2021年四季度部分企業(yè)為2022年旺季備貨較多,在今年上半年銷售,企業(yè)內部的庫存也有下降。
二、拖拉機市場出現變化:大拖銷售總量增長品種調整,中拖總量持平多個品種銷量下滑。
從今年1-5月大中拖的銷售情況來看,出現了大拖增長、中拖平穩(wěn)的情況。據統計,1-5月份大拖銷售51997臺,同比增長30.6%,中拖銷售129169臺,同比下降0.4%,今年1-5月大中拖銷量181192臺,同比增長6.9%,因此今年1-5月拖拉機銷售的增長主要依賴于大拖銷售的大幅增長。1-5月份拖拉機市場有以下幾個特點:
1、中拖總量持平,但多個品種銷量下滑。從中拖銷量來看,今年1-5銷售129169臺,同比下降0.4%,三年來首次出現了總量下降。從中拖品種來看,今年70-80(含70馬力及以上,不含80馬力,下同)系列仍然高速增長,1-5月銷量44089臺,同比增長40.2%;由去年的銷量第二提升到今年的銷量第一,表現一技獨秀;50-60系列銷量33293臺,今年銷量排第二去年第一,同比下降7.4%;90-100系列銷量18141臺,同比增長0.7%,由去年的第四排今年的第三,表現平穩(wěn);60-70系列銷量13420臺同比下降25.6%,銷售由去年的第三今年排第四;40-50系列銷量8356臺,同比下降18.1%;80-90系列銷是8253臺,同比下降17.1%。從今年的中拖市場來看,以70系列為主兼顧50系列,90系列為輔,其他一些品種都出現了較大幅度的下降,說明中拖市場需求的馬力段出現了較大的變化,馬力還在往上延伸。
2、大拖總量增長品種結構在調整。從大拖來看,銷售總量保持了高速增長,主銷品種的增幅均較大。200-220系列今年銷量12039臺,同比增長80.7%,今年銷量第一,去年銷量第三;140-150系列銷量7913臺,同比下降6.8%,銷量去年第一今年第二;120-130系列銷量7178臺,同比增長0.3%,銷量去年第二今年排第三,100-110系列銷量6638臺,同比增長91.9%,銷量排第四,160-180系列銷量6139臺,同比增長150.2%,銷量排第五;150-160系列銷量3337臺,同比增長9.3%,220-240系列銷量3261臺,同比增長54.8%。從上述數據來看,今年產品的結構出現了變化和調整,200系列、100系列、160系列的銷售增量大,去年主銷的140系列、120系列則出現了平穩(wěn)的情況;另外200馬力及以上品種的增幅較大。
3、大馬力兩驅產品的增幅較大。據統計,今年1-5月共銷售兩輪驅動拖拉機10421臺,同比下降2.3%;但大馬力兩驅增幅大,150和160兩個系列開票2405臺,同比增長兩倍多。兩驅拖拉機的主銷區(qū)域中原區(qū)域去年受水災影響,今年春耕作業(yè)時用戶大都選擇大拖兩驅旋耕及秸稈還田作業(yè)。據用戶反映,大拖四驅拖拉機由于自身重、有的地方還會陷車,轉彎不靈活,油耗比兩驅機型大。
4、拖拉機行業(yè)的集中度進一步提高。從行業(yè)情況來看,一是從頭部企業(yè)銷售量占行業(yè)的比重情況來看,集中度仍在提高,今年1-5月中國一拖、濰柴雷沃、東風農機等前5名的頭部企業(yè)集中度高達73%,同比提高3個百分點。
二是企業(yè)產銷量兩極分化。根據中國農機工業(yè)協會提供的統計資料,從1-5月生產量來看,27個企業(yè)中16個企業(yè)的產量下降,僅9個增長;從1-5月銷量來看,27個企業(yè)中13個企業(yè)增長,這其中9個企業(yè)增幅在10%以上;有13個企業(yè)銷售下降,這其中9個企業(yè)的下降幅度在20%以上。
5、拖拉機出口受影響。受俄烏戰(zhàn)爭的影響,1-5月大中拖的拖拉機出口量為10436臺,同比下降14.3%。從2021年我國拖拉機出口的數量統計來看,烏克蘭是我國拖拉機出口最大的市場,俄羅斯則是排在第三的市場。從今年農機進出口的統計數據來看,2月份我國出口烏克蘭拖拉機2836臺,2月下旬俄烏戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā),3月、4月拖拉機出口烏克蘭無數據。
三、下半年拖拉機市場預計
今年以來黨中央、國務院、農業(yè)農村部對三農工作的高度重視,達到一個前所未有的高度。今年以來,中央財政安排70億元支持小麥生產,力度前所未有;對實際種糧農民發(fā)放一次補貼,3月、5月共兩次發(fā)放300億元;小麥、水稻最低收購價的提高,糧食收購價格的提高,如今年小麥的收購均價達到了1.5元/斤,遠高于1.15元/斤的最低收購價。糧價的提高,帶來了農民收入的增長,農民投入的積極性提高;
農機行業(yè)國三國四切換帶來一波產品更新。從卡車行業(yè)2021年7月國五升國六的市場銷售的情況來看,國六實施前的國五產品銷售情況非常好,據中國汽車流通協會商用車專業(yè)委員會提供的統計數據,重型卡車從2020年4月到2021年3月連續(xù)保持12個的增長,國五銷售的增幅高達66.9%。農機行業(yè)可能也會有這樣一波的行情。
今年的農機購置與應用補貼資金達到212億元,比2021年增加22億元。補貼政策的實施及資金的增加,將會拉動一波銷售。
因此預計下半年拖拉機行業(yè)的銷售將會出現一波增長。(常州東風農機集團有限公司 許國明)
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