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中國農(nóng)機工業(yè)適逢良好發(fā)展環(huán)境和機遇

2023-04-14 12:00:00 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械工業(yè)協(xié)會 作者：寧學(xué)貴 閱讀量：21370 評論

導(dǎo)讀：今年農(nóng)機工業(yè)面臨嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)，行業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)收入預(yù)計有比較大的下滑，企業(yè)經(jīng)營比較困難，一些小企業(yè)生存堪憂

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】2022年下半年隨著疫情防控的調(diào)整，市場逐步向好，出現(xiàn)恢復(fù)性的增長，銷售需求較好。三季度以來，中國一拖等企業(yè)開啟了持續(xù)的“爆單”生產(chǎn)，大中輪拖、收獲機等產(chǎn)量均創(chuàng)近六年來同期產(chǎn)量新高。
 
　　一、農(nóng)機工業(yè)總體概況


 

　　1.農(nóng)機工業(yè)的動蕩之年
 
　　2022年新年伊始農(nóng)機工業(yè)就高歌猛進，骨干企業(yè)開工早、產(chǎn)量足、滿負荷生產(chǎn)。主要原因：一是上一年四季度由于受農(nóng)業(yè)政策激勵、糧食豐收、國四切換等影響，農(nóng)民種糧積極性和收益有明顯的提高，產(chǎn)品銷售尤其是大中馬力拖拉機的銷售大幅度非?；馃?，庫存量大幅度減少，1月份企業(yè)補充市場庫存。二是全球經(jīng)濟開始恢復(fù)，采購需求增加，船運逐步順暢，出口訂單充足。然而3月春耕銷售旺季剛開始，各地疫情相繼爆發(fā)，吉林、黑龍江等主要農(nóng)機銷售地區(qū)進入靜默狀態(tài)，銷售基本停止。4月份山東、浙江、江蘇等農(nóng)機產(chǎn)業(yè)集群地疫情爆發(fā)，物流嚴重受阻，原材料和產(chǎn)品無法運輸，一批企業(yè)停工。9月份銷售旺季，新疆、內(nèi)蒙等大型機具銷售地區(qū)疫情加重，企業(yè)無法出行，無法辦理購機補貼手續(xù)。疫情的起起伏伏對行業(yè)的影響非常之大。
 
　　下半年隨著疫情防控的調(diào)整，市場逐步向好，出現(xiàn)恢復(fù)性的增長，銷售需求較好。三季度以來，中國一拖等企業(yè)開啟了持續(xù)的“爆單”生產(chǎn)，大中輪拖、收獲機等產(chǎn)量均創(chuàng)近六年來同期產(chǎn)量新高。
 
　　2022年也是國家對糧食安全的重視程度達到空前高度的一年。世界糧食供應(yīng)緊缺、谷物價格居高不下，糧食自給和保障供應(yīng)成為國家戰(zhàn)略方針，出臺了很多促進農(nóng)機工業(yè)發(fā)展的政策和措施，農(nóng)機企業(yè)享受了更多政策紅利。
 
　　優(yōu)質(zhì)農(nóng)機產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈資源成為重要的競爭能力，國內(nèi)大企業(yè)依靠優(yōu)秀的供應(yīng)體系，在疫情影響嚴重時盡力維系了生產(chǎn)，消化了原材料漲價的成本。大企業(yè)經(jīng)營業(yè)績逆勢大幅度增長，小企業(yè)騷動迷茫甚至退出行業(yè)。
 
　　2022年行業(yè)總體情況是高開低走、求穩(wěn)促進、回升疲軟。
 
　　農(nóng)機工業(yè)成為投資者繼續(xù)看好的朝陽產(chǎn)業(yè)，山河智能等工程機械進入農(nóng)機行業(yè)參與競爭。國有資本大幅度增加，濰柴雷沃、中國一拖等大國有企業(yè)加大固定資產(chǎn)投資和創(chuàng)新投入，提高競爭能力。
 
　　2022年全國規(guī)模以上農(nóng)機企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)收入比上年同期下降了4%左右，比預(yù)期的增幅少了8個百分點，低于機械工業(yè)的增幅。
 
　　農(nóng)機工業(yè)2022年利潤同比下降了9%左右。利潤大幅下降除了原材料、零配件采購價格上升，農(nóng)機產(chǎn)品價格被凍結(jié)造成經(jīng)營成本增大外，銷售量不足、產(chǎn)能不足是主要原因。
 
　　在困難面前，企業(yè)提質(zhì)增效，骨干企業(yè)產(chǎn)成品庫存下降65.09%，利潤率增長了30.67%。中國一拖、濰柴雷沃、常州東風(fēng)企業(yè)利潤增長都超過了上一年，增幅超過了20%以上。規(guī)模以上農(nóng)機企業(yè)財務(wù)費用同比下降49.27%，國家“減稅降費+緩稅緩費”紓困解困政策的實施，大大降低了企業(yè)經(jīng)營成本。
 
　　國家海關(guān)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2022年農(nóng)業(yè)機械出口總額增長1.6%，比上一年大幅下降。拖拉機出口同比增長21.2%；聯(lián)合收獲機出口15654臺，比上年增長了39.94%。主要出口國家：孟加拉3730臺、印度2558臺、印尼2182臺、菲律賓847臺、伊朗832臺、泰國481臺、越南511臺、日本137臺；插秧機出口7687臺，同比下降39.95%，伊朗、印度占了42%。出口下降，主要受美元加息、俄烏沖突、歐洲排放升級完成的影響。在中國的跨國公司業(yè)績較好，美國愛科拖拉機出口量增長23.6%；德國科樂收公司大型收獲機、青貯飼料機等非常暢銷。農(nóng)業(yè)機械進口增長35.1%，收獲機械增長59.9%，拖拉機下降1.0%。拖拉機主要從法國、美國、英國進口，聯(lián)合收獲機主要從日本、德國、美國采購。農(nóng)機進口大幅增長，主要是疫情緩解后國際物流恢復(fù)。農(nóng)機進口比重不大，對行業(yè)的影響很小。
 
　　2.主要產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量情況
 
　　2022年主要農(nóng)機產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)量少數(shù)上升，多數(shù)下降，拖拉機和收獲機等大宗產(chǎn)品繼續(xù)增長。國家統(tǒng)計局統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)：收獲后處理機械下降9.37%；農(nóng)產(chǎn)品初加工機械下降43.18%；飼料生產(chǎn)專用設(shè)備下降16.87%；棉花加工機械下降27.84%。據(jù)中國農(nóng)機工業(yè)協(xié)會統(tǒng)計，全年拖拉機產(chǎn)量增長4.94%，銷量增長26.82%，大中拖生產(chǎn)327922臺,下降3.10%，銷售增長17.22%。拖拉機市場環(huán)境不斷得以優(yōu)化，國家試水優(yōu)機優(yōu)補。拖拉機無級變速、混合動力、電動驅(qū)動核心技術(shù)有新的突破。50-100馬力占比61.66%，300馬力以上213臺,220-300馬力增長都超過100%。
 
　　據(jù)中國農(nóng)機工業(yè)協(xié)會統(tǒng)計，行業(yè)骨干企業(yè)自走輪式谷物收獲機生產(chǎn)3.1萬臺，比上年增長了14.09%。2022年8公斤喂入量的橫軸流谷物收獲機占比4.69%,同比下降88.54%, 9公斤喂入量橫軸流占比45.61%，同比增長288.27%。
 
　　2022年骨干企業(yè)生產(chǎn)玉米機4.3萬臺，增長了10.89%。行業(yè)加劇洗牌，8家企業(yè)產(chǎn)量超過千臺。九方泰禾、新疆牧神表現(xiàn)突出，全價值鏈收獲效益好，豐富了產(chǎn)品種類，大豆玉米帶狀復(fù)合種植帶來小型玉米機增長，無級變速行走系統(tǒng)技術(shù)有實質(zhì)性突破。
 
　　2022年骨干企業(yè)生產(chǎn)履帶式水稻收獲機6.3萬臺，同比下降15.36%。大型化趨勢越來越明顯，喂入量大于6公斤的機型占到87.21%。丘陵山區(qū)宜機化改造、大豆帶狀復(fù)合種植，拉動小喂入量履帶收獲機市場增長。履帶機進一步向旱田作業(yè)拓展。秸稈離田技術(shù)裝備創(chuàng)新。
 
　　水稻插秧機生產(chǎn)5.6萬臺，比上一年下降了31.92%。產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整加快，水稻直播擴大，新型經(jīng)營主體再生稻加速推廣，機械有序拋秧取得實效。
 
　　打(壓)捆機產(chǎn)量下降15.51%，水稻等含水率高的谷物秸稈目前沒有很好的用處，不能為農(nóng)民增加收入，影響其離田收獲。
 
　　3.農(nóng)機工業(yè)運行的特點
 
　　2022年國家對農(nóng)機工業(yè)的支持措施有力，政策到位，農(nóng)機工業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境和機遇非常好。國家發(fā)改委、工信部、科技部、農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部一批財政項目中都將農(nóng)機裝備列為支持項目，安徽、山東、河南等省市也將農(nóng)機工業(yè)列為重要產(chǎn)業(yè)。政策的支持極大的提振了行業(yè)信心和企業(yè)活力，農(nóng)機企業(yè)紛紛加大了裝備投資和產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新力度。農(nóng)機零部件企業(yè)也越來越被政府重視和加以支持，農(nóng)機目前已有的供應(yīng)鏈在行業(yè)升級中起到了重要的作用，特別是經(jīng)受住了新冠疫情和俄烏爭端等突變的嚴峻考驗。中國農(nóng)機零部件企業(yè)已經(jīng)成為全球重要的供應(yīng)商和產(chǎn)業(yè)集群，一批好的農(nóng)機企業(yè)得到了跨越式的發(fā)展。
 
　　行業(yè)競爭環(huán)境不斷優(yōu)化，形成有序公平的競爭市場。農(nóng)機國四排放升級是一次跨越，它對農(nóng)機行業(yè)、農(nóng)機企業(yè)(生產(chǎn)企業(yè)、銷售企業(yè))、農(nóng)機工業(yè)發(fā)展的影響無疑都是巨大的、無法置之身外的，也是非常艱巨的。農(nóng)機行業(yè)對國四排放升級采取的積極態(tài)度和扎扎實實的行動，不僅僅是我們對國家環(huán)保政策和實現(xiàn)“雙碳”戰(zhàn)略目標的理解和重視，也是我們行業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級、技術(shù)進步、高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的迫切需要。國三國四切換工作，從一開始就得到了協(xié)會和全行業(yè)尤其是骨干企業(yè)和外資企業(yè)的積極響應(yīng)和重視，大部分農(nóng)機企業(yè)以高度的社會責(zé)任感積極參與國四排放升級，產(chǎn)品補貼和服務(wù)按時切換，國四排放升級作為系統(tǒng)工程，有序推進。
 
　　2022年進入國家補貼目錄的拖拉機企業(yè)230余家，一些企業(yè)每年的銷售數(shù)量不足千臺，利潤微薄，產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量更是良莠不齊，社會資源浪費嚴重。行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化不能單靠行政手段，有序的市場競爭環(huán)境和運行秩序才能事半功倍，購機補貼、國四排放都是有效的手段，會加速企業(yè)集中度的整合，一批技術(shù)投入不足的企業(yè)將會被淘汰。
 
　　二、行業(yè)運行中存在的主要問題
 
　　農(nóng)機購置補貼政策實施多年，對農(nóng)機工業(yè)快速發(fā)展起到了非常重要的推動作用。由于市場需求旺盛，補貼資金有了一定的缺口，購機結(jié)算的時效性面臨挑戰(zhàn)，結(jié)算不及時既影響農(nóng)民種糧積極性，也影響農(nóng)機生產(chǎn)企業(yè)和銷售企業(yè)的正常經(jīng)營。要通過“優(yōu)機優(yōu)補”、“補短板”、“支持新產(chǎn)品入市”等舉措加快農(nóng)機工業(yè)的高質(zhì)量發(fā)展。
 
　　國外二手農(nóng)機產(chǎn)品進口量不斷增大，一些二手機無法滿足我國現(xiàn)行排放標準要求，售后服務(wù)也存在不足，擾亂國內(nèi)市場。
 
　　三、2023年農(nóng)機工業(yè)發(fā)展預(yù)測
 
　　今年農(nóng)機工業(yè)面臨嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)，行業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)收入預(yù)計有比較大的下滑，企業(yè)經(jīng)營比較困難，一些小企業(yè)生存堪憂。一是國際環(huán)境不確定因素增多。俄烏沖突、全球持續(xù)干旱、美國通貨膨脹加息影響全球經(jīng)濟增長，農(nóng)機出口疲軟。二是國四排放升級，電控產(chǎn)品尚待市場驗證，農(nóng)民持幣待購。三是購機補貼資金不足。
 

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