2025年全國玉米重大病蟲害發(fā)生趨勢預(yù)報

2025-01-09 09:54:00 來源：全國農(nóng)技推廣中心 閱讀量：18975 評論

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 科技創(chuàng)新】 近期，全國農(nóng)技中心組織科研、教學(xué)和植保機構(gòu)專家，依據(jù)玉米病蟲源基數(shù)、種植制度、作物布局和氣候等因素綜合分析，預(yù)計2025年全國玉米病蟲害總體偏重發(fā)生，發(fā)生面積11.1億畝次。其中，蟲害發(fā)生7.6億畝次，病害發(fā)生3.5億畝次。草地貪夜蛾、棉鈴蟲、玉米螟、桃蛀螟等穗期害蟲偏重發(fā)生，玉米南方銹病、大斑病、穗腐病、北方炭疽病重發(fā)流行風(fēng)險高。
 
　　趨勢預(yù)報
 
　　（一）蟲害
 
　　玉米螟全國發(fā)生面積2.6億畝次，在東北、黃淮海、西北、西南、華南、江南中等發(fā)生，東北和黃淮海局部偏重發(fā)生。棉鈴蟲在黃淮海、東北南部偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積1.1億畝次。草地貪夜蛾西南、華南、江南偏重發(fā)生，黃淮海、西北地區(qū)偏輕及以下程度發(fā)生，部分晚播夏玉米偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積5000萬畝次。粘蟲在黃淮海、東北、西北和西南總體偏輕發(fā)生，局部將出現(xiàn)集中危害，全國發(fā)生面積5000萬畝次。
 
　　此外，甜菜夜蛾、小地老虎等夜蛾類害蟲在黃淮海地區(qū)中等至偏重發(fā)生，蚜蟲、薊馬、葉螨、雙斑長跗螢葉甲等喜旱性小型害蟲在部分地區(qū)會造成一定危害；全國發(fā)生面積2.9億畝次。
 
　　（二）病害
 
　　大斑病在東北、華北、西北、西南等冷涼地區(qū)局部偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積8200萬畝。南方銹病在黃淮海夏玉米區(qū)偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積7500萬畝。穗腐病在黃淮海、西南、西北、東北南部等地區(qū)偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積4000萬畝。北方炭疽病在東北局部偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積1500萬畝。
 
　　此外，小斑病、灰斑病、褐斑病、彎孢葉斑病、白斑病、莖腐病、瘤黑粉病、絲黑穗病、線蟲矮化病等在部分地區(qū)會造成一定危害；全國發(fā)生面積1.4億畝次。
 
　　預(yù)測依據(jù)
 
　　（一）遷飛性害蟲冬前基數(shù)偏高
 
　　1．草地貪夜蛾冬前基數(shù)同比偏高
 
　　2024年9—11月高空測報燈下回遷蟲量，云南江城、尋甸、瑞麗累計誘蛾量分別為327頭、10417頭、588頭，分別是2023年同期的1.7倍、4.3倍、0.8倍。2024年入冬以來，西南華南周年繁殖區(qū)在田發(fā)生面積52.7萬畝，比2023年同期增加22.6%；主要發(fā)生在晚秋鮮食玉米和冬玉米上，大部地區(qū)農(nóng)戶防控積極、防后蟲量低，但云南普洱、德宏等地局部未防田被害株率在50%以上、百株蟲量30頭以上。
 
　　2．粘蟲冬前基數(shù)高于去年、低于常年
 
　　2024年夏秋季，北方大部三代粘蟲總體偏輕至輕發(fā)生，僅西北局部偏重發(fā)生，全國發(fā)生面積916萬畝，是2023年的2.6倍，但比常年均值減少約8成。2024年9—11月高空測報燈下回遷蟲量高于2023年、但低于常年，云南江城、尋甸、瑞麗累計誘蛾量分別為78頭、313頭和314頭，分別是2023年同期的1.6倍、6.1倍、2.5倍。
 
　　3．玉米螟冬前基數(shù)總體偏低
 
　　據(jù)各地冬前調(diào)查，東北地區(qū)玉米螟冬前基數(shù)下降至歷史最低水平，其他地區(qū)接近常年或偏低。平均百稈活蟲量，北京、河北、山東、河南、江蘇等黃淮海地區(qū)為20—37.7頭，除北京、河北高于2023年同期外，其余省份降低11%—22%；東北、西南、西北等地均低于17頭，多數(shù)與2023年同期接近。
 
　　（二）玉米種植制度和栽培措施總體有利于病蟲害發(fā)生
 
　　玉米主產(chǎn)區(qū)普遍實施免耕、秸稈還田、連作等栽培措施，有利于病蟲源積累。西南華南周年繁殖區(qū)一年四季均有玉米種植，長江流域和黃淮海地區(qū)夏、秋玉米交錯種植、播期不齊，為草地貪夜蛾提供了豐富的寄主條件。黃淮海等夏玉米主產(chǎn)區(qū)推廣大豆玉米帶狀復(fù)合種植以及設(shè)施蔬菜面積擴大，利于棉鈴蟲、甜菜夜蛾、桃蛀螟等多食性害蟲轉(zhuǎn)移危害。東北、華北主栽品種對大斑病，黃淮海主栽品種對南方銹病、褐斑病等病害抗性較差，利于病害發(fā)生流行。
 
　　（三）氣象條件對病蟲害發(fā)生有利
 
　　據(jù)國家氣候中心監(jiān)測和預(yù)測，2025年1—2月，全國大部地區(qū)氣溫接近常年同期或偏高，有利于南方病蟲害發(fā)生和北方害蟲越冬；西南地區(qū)東南部、華南西部等地可能出現(xiàn)階段性低溫雨雪冰凍天氣，對草地貪夜蛾、粘蟲等害蟲冬繁有一定不利影響。2025年春季，全國大部地區(qū)氣溫總體偏高，西南地區(qū)北部等地降水偏多，有利于病蟲源積累和流行性病害發(fā)生。

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