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農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革不可或缺農(nóng)機支持

2016-01-11 09:23:47 來源：中國農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 作者：魏亞伯 閱讀量：24965 評論

導讀：2015年12月底，中央農(nóng)村工作會議數(shù)次提出農(nóng)業(yè)“供給側(cè)”結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，按照慣例，這將可能是2016年中央一號文件的主要內(nèi)容。那么什么是供給側(cè)改革？供給側(cè)改革需要做什么？供給側(cè)改革又有何影響？

      【中國農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 本站原創(chuàng)】2015年12月底，中央農(nóng)村工作會議數(shù)次提出農(nóng)業(yè)“供給側(cè)”結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，按照慣例，這將可能是2016年中央一號文件的主要內(nèi)容。那么什么是供給側(cè)改革？供給側(cè)改革需要做什么？供給側(cè)改革又有何影響？

      供給側(cè)自然是與需求側(cè)相對應的。此次中央農(nóng)村工作會議上，提出的供給側(cè)改革內(nèi)容主要有兩方面：

      一是去庫存

      據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，2014年全國糧食總產(chǎn)量60702.7萬噸（6.07027億噸）。與此同時，我國糧食進口糧也同步增長，我國三大主糧已連續(xù)5年凈進口，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2014年我國糧食進口超過1億噸。而我國年糧食消費量是6.5億噸，那么，這沒有被消耗的大約6000萬噸糧食要待在糧庫里了。這就是所謂的“三量齊增”。

      庫存量在常年累積下越來越高，新收的糧食沒地方儲存，建糧庫成了一些產(chǎn)糧大省的省長們的重要任務之一。而如此高的庫存量，讓國家財政再也撐不住了，政策性的臨儲糧價格今年開始全線下跌，玉米更是直線下降，農(nóng)民們損失慘重。

      為何要去庫存由此可見一斑。

      與此同時，一些糧食深加工企業(yè)日子也同樣不好過，有些廠子一開工就虧損索性關(guān)門歇業(yè)。

      二是保質(zhì)量

      既然糧食在國內(nèi)過剩，為何糧食加工企業(yè)的日子還這么不好過呢？其中很重要的一個因素就是國產(chǎn)糧質(zhì)量不過關(guān)，企業(yè)沒辦法拿去加工！那賣到國外，走出口這條路行得通嗎？答案是不行。因為我國糧食在各種因素下，其生產(chǎn)成本遠高于國外，高價出口沒人要，低價出口就是虧本。沒辦法，只能存著！

      糧食質(zhì)量行不行，民眾也會投票。還記得2015年春節(jié)期間，有人拿1500元買10斤日本大米的新聞嗎？事實上，這只是國人搶購“日本天價大米”的續(xù)集。2007年7月，中國恢復進口日本大米，價格超過國內(nèi)20倍的日本進口大米被一搶而空。

      日本大米被*的背后是國產(chǎn)大米在品質(zhì)方面正面臨著信任危機，國產(chǎn)大米在競爭中劣勢盡顯，前面已說到，糧食出口不出去這也是原因之一。

      因此，國產(chǎn)糧要被國內(nèi)所消耗，質(zhì)量要提升，至少先要被國內(nèi)所認可。

      而農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革的原則就是，在保證國家糧食供給充足的前提下，提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量。

      農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革是一項中長期目標，很可能也是“十三五”期間一項重要的“三農(nóng)”改革課題，此項改革可謂影響面非常廣。

      要去庫存的方式無非有兩種：減少入庫量和拉動出庫量。首先，從近期以來，人民幣離岸匯率大跌，人民幣的貶值或許可以阻擋糧食對國內(nèi)市場的沖擊，從短期來看，或許會有效力。但這并不是根本解決之道，國內(nèi)糧食市場總有一天要與接軌，當然，這是后話。其次，農(nóng)業(yè)部已經(jīng)著手調(diào)整糧食種植結(jié)構(gòu)，預計未來5年內(nèi)減少玉米種植面積5000萬畝，2016年內(nèi)預計減少超過1000萬畝，主要針對“鐮刀灣”地區(qū)。類似這樣的種植業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整或在農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)機構(gòu)改革中變得更多。再次，國家或加大對糧食深加工企業(yè)的補助，當國產(chǎn)糧質(zhì)量穩(wěn)步提升后，再讓這一產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈不如健康發(fā)展軌道。

      而提升農(nóng)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量，涉及面則更為廣闊。從當下的農(nóng)藥化肥零增長目標，到土地流轉(zhuǎn)與規(guī)模化經(jīng)營，再到農(nóng)機具的升級換代，這些都是“保質(zhì)”的重要支撐內(nèi)容。
 

      由此可以看出，農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革不僅與需求側(cè)緊緊相連，包括整個農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈在內(nèi)的農(nóng)民、企業(yè)、政府都包含在內(nèi)，這是一盤大棋，其發(fā)力既要強又要穩(wěn)，那么農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革中需要注意哪些問題呢？請期待下期文章。

上一篇： 農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革重要的是保護農(nóng)民利益

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