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2022年10月中國農產品供需形勢分析

2022-10-14 08:34:59 來源:農業(yè)農村部市場預警專家委員會 閱讀量:19962 評論

導讀:本月對2022/23年度中國食糖供需不作調整。9月17日內蒙古自治區(qū)首家糖廠開機。

  【農機網(wǎng) 市場行情玉米:本月,2021/22玉米市場年度結束,預計年度玉米進口量2200萬噸,比上月上調200萬噸。國內產區(qū)玉米批發(fā)年度均價每噸2641元,與上年度基本持平。進口玉米到岸稅后年度均價每噸2876元,比上年度上漲19.6%。綜合調研調度情況,本月將2022/23年度中國玉米播種面積調增426千公頃(639萬畝)至42950千公頃(6.44億畝),產量調增275萬噸至27531萬噸,其他預測數(shù)與上月保持一致。全國玉米主產區(qū)大部光溫正常,有利于玉米單產形成和收獲晾曬。隨著生豬養(yǎng)殖利潤好轉,飼料需求回升,玉米飼用消費穩(wěn)中有增,工業(yè)消費保持穩(wěn)定。
 
  大豆:本月,2021/22大豆市場年度結束,大豆生產、消費、貿易維持上月估計不變。國產大豆銷區(qū)批發(fā)均價每噸6472元,比上年度上漲8.7%,進口大豆到岸稅后均價每噸4940元,比上年度上漲14.5%,均略高于預測上限。
 
  本月對2022/23年度中國大豆生產、消費、貿易和價格維持上月預測不變。國內方面,截至10月上旬全國大豆收獲進度超過六成。大豆播種以來,產區(qū)大部氣象條件總體利于大豆生長發(fā)育和產量形成,盡管東北部分地區(qū)出現(xiàn)降水偏多、土壤漬澇現(xiàn)象,華北、黃淮部分地區(qū)出現(xiàn)高溫少雨情況,但對大豆產量形成影響有限,大豆單產仍維持上月預測。國際方面,北美大豆收獲進度超過市場預期,南美大豆增產預期依然較強,全球大豆供應整體充足。
 
  棉花:本月,根據(jù)海關統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),將2021/22年度中國棉花進口量調減2萬噸至173萬噸,棉花期末庫存調減至713萬噸。本月預測,新年度棉花產量、消費量和進口量維持上月預測不變。全國棉花進入集中采收期,采摘進度較往年偏慢。截至10月8日,全國新棉采摘進度16.0%,同比下降1.2個百分點。
 
  食用植物油:本月,2021/22市場年度結束,中國食用植物油產量較上月估計值調減4萬噸至2748萬噸,主要由于油菜籽、葵花籽進口量調減;進口量較上月估計值調減46萬噸至547萬噸,主要由于棕櫚油、豆油、花生油進口量不及預期;消費量較上月估計值調減50萬噸至3584萬噸,主要由于飼料用油需求減少。本月預測,2022/23年度中國食用植物油產量2925萬噸,進口量843萬噸,消費量3634萬噸,維持上月預測值不變。近期,主產區(qū)冬油菜陸續(xù)進入播種階段,長江中下游地區(qū)降雨偏少,對油菜育苗播種的影響需持續(xù)跟蹤關注。
 
  食糖:本月上調2021/22年度中國食糖進口量50萬噸,對其他估計數(shù)據(jù)暫不作調整。2021/22年度中國食糖產銷結束,截至9月末,全國累計產糖956萬噸,比上年度減少111萬噸;累計銷糖867萬噸,比上年度減少95萬噸;累計銷糖率90.7%,比上年度加快0.5個百分點。食糖年度均價為每噸5706元,處于預測范圍內,比上年度每噸漲328元,漲幅6.1%;國際原糖年度均價為每磅18.9美分,在預測范圍內,比上年度每磅上漲2.3美分,漲幅13.9%。
 
  本月對2022/23年度中國食糖供需不作調整。9月17日內蒙古自治區(qū)首家糖廠開機,截至10月8日,內蒙古自治區(qū)和新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)共有15家糖廠開機生產。未來需繼續(xù)關注新冠肺炎疫情、極端天氣及國際糖價等因素的影響。
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